An InsiderAdvantage poll found Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson tied at 46% among 1,200 likely voters in Maine surveyed Sept. 22-23, less than six weeks before Election Day. The poll’s margin of error is 2.83 percentage points.
Other recent polls were also close. A Sept. 15-22 New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena College survey gave Collins 49% to Jackson’s 46%, a three-point lead within its margin of error. A University of New Hampshire poll put Jackson at 51% and Collins at 47%, describing the race as a statistical tie. Rasmussen had Jackson ahead 46%-45%, while Quantus Insights gave Collins a 47%-46% edge. The RealClearPolitics average showed Jackson at 47.4% and Collins at 46.4%.
The Cook Political Report rates Maine a Toss Up, among seven Senate contests in its most competitive category. Cook says Republicans believe Collins’ reputation for protecting Maine’s interests and her differences with President Donald Trump on tariffs could help her with independent voters; Democrats argue Jackson can benefit from the political environment and Collins’ declining popularity. Cook cautions that Maine polling has historically been difficult because rural and working-class voters are hard to reach. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure a Senate majority.
