Donald Trump and Xi Jinping prepare for a second meeting this year as analysts say the Iran conflict, rising fuel costs and tariff blowback weigh on Trump, while China’s 90% share of global rare-earth refining gives Beijing leverage.
Hudson Institute China Center director Miles Yu said Trump is pressing Beijing to implement commitments on rare earths, agricultural purchases and market access for U.S. firms, while Xi wants to preserve and extend the trade truce. Yu said the summit’s real test is whether China delivers measurable results, not the ceremony or rhetoric.
Analyst Matthew Turpin disputed the Chinese government’s assertion that the economy is growing 4–5%, saying China was likely in recession and linking its weakness to Xi’s pandemic-era prioritization of security and surveillance over economic prosperity. He said next year’s 21st Communist Party Congress could become a referendum on Xi’s rule if economic gaps are not addressed.
