Experts say El Niño could push up U.S. prices for chocolate, olive oil and coffee, while sugar and bread are also vulnerable to supply shortfalls. Coffee and palm-oil-based foods may lag the climate signal by three to 16 months, pushing those effects into 2027.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization said world food prices in August were at their highest since 2022. Cambridge economist Kamiar Mohaddes forecast a mid-teens percentage increase in global food prices, with effects lasting up to two years as El Niño builds toward a peak around December 2026. A Goldman Sachs analysis cited by The Guardian in July projected a nearly 16% rise in global food commodity prices, potentially not fully realized until the second half of 2028.
Experts said the United States is unlikely to face shortages of major food groups: Kansas State economist Nelson Villoria said lower corn yields would be largely offset by production in other states. By contrast, Bonn economist Matin Qaim warned hunger could rise in poor African and Asian countries reliant on grain imports. Leeds climate scientist Amanda Maycock said the Indian monsoon brought 10% to 15% less rain this summer, slowing rice production; drought risks also threaten rice imports in India, Thailand and Vietnam.
