U.S. and European officials say Russia's hybrid attacks test NATO and aim to curb support for Ukraine. Germany said intelligence pointed to Russian state-linked actors in an August airport drone plot; Estonia sees no evidence Moscow is preparing a large-scale military attack.
Other incidents cited include repeated Russian drone violations of Latvian, Lithuanian and Estonian airspace, Russian submarines' attempts to disable critical Arctic subsea cables, and Poland's accusation that Russia started a fire at a factory producing weapons for Ukraine.
Denmark's defense intelligence service said Sept. 24 that the risk of a limited Russian military attack on one or more NATO countries bordering Russia was low but growing. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned the war could spread through a hybrid or sabotage attack or a misunderstanding. NATO's Article 5 requires members to treat an attack on one ally as an attack on all; Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna urged public attribution, sanctions and a response, but ruled out retaliatory attacks in Russia.
