India's surface warmed 0.138°C per decade in 2001–24, compared with 0.280°C per decade across northern tropical land. Researchers estimate aerosols and clouds reduced the trend by 0.125°C per decade, potentially masking stronger warming.
Using satellite records, ground measurements and climate modeling, the team estimated aerosol changes lowered the trend by 0.042°C per decade and cloud changes by 0.083°C. Aerosol concentrations rose especially in central India and along the eastern coast; many monitoring sites also recorded declines in black carbon and dust, leaving a mix that scattered more sunlight. Cloud cover increased notably in central and western India. The authors could not show that aerosols caused the added cloudiness; weather, moisture, natural climate swings and greenhouse warming could also be involved.
The researchers say climate projections still struggle to represent aerosol-cloud interactions. Part of the analysis used a regional climate model covering 2014 to mid-2019, with its findings applied to the longer record. The authors say air-quality improvements should proceed alongside climate adaptation: cleaner air could benefit health but reduce the particles shading the surface, allowing ground-level warming to rise faster.
