A YouGov projection gives Labour 241 seats in a general election, 162 fewer than its current total, pointing to a hung parliament; the Conservatives are forecast to win 130 and Reform UK 123. The government says it does not plan to call an early election.
Labour has remained ahead of Reform in approval ratings since Burnham's leadership began in July. Reform's average approval rating is 23 points, its lowest in 20 months; the Greens are at 10, down from 14 in April. Polling expert Sir John Curtice cautioned that Reform could still become the largest party nationally, citing Labour's loss of 38 councils and declining support in areas where it had been strongest.
Labour sources told The Independent that the Holborn and St Pancras by-election is being viewed as a test of the early-election idea; pollsters broadly expect Labour to win after it took nearly half the vote there in 2024. Zack Polanski is standing for the Greens next month. The Greens' Camden council seats rose from one to 11, though Labour retained overall control. Reform sources said a convincing Labour win might persuade Labour that the progressive vote was reuniting.
