Carnival faces lower analyst price targets ahead of its Sept. 29 fiscal third-quarter results, chiefly because the company does not hedge fuel. A 10% move in fuel costs could swing adjusted net income by $56 million in a quarter.
Its latest reported quarter, Q2, beat its own guidance by $100 million despite nearly 30% higher fuel prices and Middle East-related disruption to European deployments. Carnival posted a 12th consecutive quarter of record net yields, improved fuel consumption per available berth day by 5.6%, and entered Q3 93% booked for the year at record prices; 2027 bookings were ahead of 2025 levels.
Carnival guided Q3 fuel costs at about $812 per metric ton, and its sensitivity table says a 10% change could swing adjusted net income by $102 million over the rest of the year. Eight brokerages cut targets from Sept. 14 to 24; Deutsche Bank alone changed its rating, from Buy to Hold. Some analysts warned 2027 estimates could fall. Susquehanna cited Royal Caribbean’s Sandals venture as a long-term yield risk, while Wells Fargo pointed to lower-priced Caribbean alternatives.
