RealClearPolitics’ average put Trump’s net approval at -21.1 Wednesday, tying his first-term low; it later rose to -20.9. Democrats lead the generic ballot by 8.7 points; betting markets put their chances of winning the House and flipping the Senate at 93% and 63%.
The 8.7-point Democratic lead is the largest for either party at this point in a midterm cycle since 2010. The generic ballot asks voters which party’s congressional candidate they plan to support. In 2018, Democrats led by 7.8 points on Sept. 24, then won the generic vote by 8.4 points, gaining 41 House seats and retaking the majority. At comparable points in their second terms, Obama and Bush had negative net approval; the president’s party lost ground in both midterms, with Republicans gaining 26 House seats under Obama and Democrats 31 under Bush.
RCP Senate averages show Texas Democrat James Talarico leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by 2.8 points and former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown leading Republican Sen. Jon Husted by 4; Trump carried Texas by 13.7 points and Ohio by 11.2 in 2024. Despite a Senate map that favors Republicans, Democrats need to pick up at least two states Trump won by 11 points to take control. In Maine, Susan Collins trails Troy Jackson by 1.3 points; Collins won in 2020 by 8.6 despite Trump losing the state by 9, and betting markets put Jackson’s chances at 67%.
