The S&P 500 has gained more than 13% in 2026 despite stalling over the past month. Motley Fool writer Bram Berkowitz points to oil prices and supply, long-term Treasury yields and S&P 500 earnings estimates as gauges of whether the market can keep rising.
WTI crude was just below $91 a barrel and Brent around $99.40 when the article was written. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve held fewer than 285 million barrels in the week ending Sept. 11, its lowest level since 1982. Experts cited in the article say levels below 250 million could be critical and risk damaging the storage caverns.
The article says higher long-term Treasury yields can make bonds more appealing than stocks and raise borrowing costs. LSEG research published Sept. 11 put S&P 500 earnings at roughly $271 per share in 2025; strategists forecast nearly $363 in 2026, up 34%, and analysts expect another 15% increase in 2027. Berkowitz says investors should watch whether forward estimates rise or fall.
