An SB Nation analysis ranks Mountain West teams by how their win probabilities shifted from preseason through Week 4, rather than raw strength. North Dakota State leads, followed by New Mexico and Nevada; UNLV is last. NDSU is 4-0, with its chances rising for every listed game.
The table compares preseason and Week 4 win probabilities for each listed matchup. The author says changes can reflect opponents' results as well as a team's own performance; Air Force had played only two games, leaving its estimates especially sensitive to other teams' results.
UNLV's win probability fell in all nine listed matchups, with four flipping from favorite to underdog and two dropping by more than 40 percentage points. Still, the Rebels were undefeated in conference play, and the author said a Mountain West title remained possible.
