Netflix forecasts about 12% Q3 growth; Motley Fool author says not to buy yet

Motley Fool

Netflix’s revenue growth eased from 17.6% in Q4 2025 to 16.2% in Q1 and 13.4% in Q2 2026; management forecasts about 12% for Q3. A Motley Fool analysis says viewing and operating income are still growing, and rates the stock a hold—not a buy yet.

Netflix said members watched more than 97 billion hours in the first half of 2026, up 2% year over year; Q2 revenue grew by double digits in every region. Management said first-half price increases performed in line with expectations, and ad revenue remained on track to roughly double to $3 billion this year. Operating income rose 11% in Q2 to $4.2 billion; the 2026 margin forecast is 31.5%, up from 29.5% in 2025.

Management’s July outlook put 2026 revenue at $51.0 billion-$51.4 billion, or 13%-14% growth; the article calculates that this implies Q4 growth of about 11%-14%. At roughly $72 per share, Netflix traded at about 19 times analysts’ expected earnings for next year, versus a low-30s multiple at its 52-week high. The author says that price looks fair if growth settles near 12%, but could prove expensive if the slowdown continues into 2027.

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