Elon Musk endorsed an X post predicting major US AI labs will reach artificial general intelligence (AGI) in 2027; it drew 1.8 million views in about three hours. Traders put the odds of an OpenAI AGI announcement before 2027 at 18% on Polymarket and 14.8% on Kalshi.
For an OpenAI announcement before 2028, Kalshi traders put the chance at about 44.3%. Mike Knoop, co-founder of Zapier and ARC Prize, called GPT-6 Astra’s result a major leap but said evidence for AGI was still lacking.
OpenAI chief scientist Jakub Pachocki wrote on Sept. 6 that no lab had solved alignment and monitoring well enough, warning of the consequences of a continued rapid rise in machine intelligence. Yann LeCun separately argued on Sept. 20 that autoregressive large language models alone will not reach human-level AI.
