Denmark’s defence intelligence service says Russia is likely to intensify hybrid warfare against the West in coming months, with more frequent, more consequential attacks on NATO. It sees a low but growing risk of a limited military attack on NATO states bordering Russia.
The service outlined possible scenarios: isolated drone or missile strikes on infrastructure supporting Ukraine, false-flag operations using Ukrainian-made drones, or a limited troop deployment in a NATO border area, possibly under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities. Chief Thomas Ahrenkiel said the aim would be to divide NATO, not take over a country.
Separately, Denmark’s Resilience Agency said Russia was likely to attempt destructive cyberattacks against Denmark and raised its threat level. The Danish military said a Russian frigate fired two flares toward a Danish military helicopter photographing it in international waters off Denmark last week; one narrowly missed the aircraft. Moscow has repeatedly denied involvement in hybrid warfare, sabotage operations in NATO countries, or plotting a confrontation.
