Fox News’ updated House Power Rankings shifted 15 races away from Republicans, including five newly rated toss-ups: Florida’s 14th and 22nd districts, Iowa’s 2nd, Maine’s 2nd and Michigan’s 4th. Republicans currently hold 218 seats to Democrats’ 214.
Six races landed in the Lean Republican category, three in Lean Democratic and one in Likely Democratic. Across all its ratings, Fox favored Democrats in 215 races and Republicans in 201, with 19 toss-ups. The two Florida districts among the five new toss-ups are Democratic-held and became more conservative after redistricting.
Recent generic-ballot polls showed Democratic leads: YouGov and The Economist reported 52% to 38% among likely voters, Ipsos and Reuters 43% to 35% among registered voters, and Quantus Insights 50% to 42% among likely voters. On Tuesday, prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket put Democrats’ chances of retaking the House at 91% and 93%; those figures reflect trader wagers, not election results.