Experts say Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are more likely to use their summit to extend a fragile US-China trade truce than to secure major deals. US tariffs average 36.5%, while China’s on US goods average 31%; Washington also wants faster Chinese critical-mineral shipments.
The two sides pulled back after Trump and Xi met in Busan in late October on the sidelines of the APEC summit, after which China resumed critical-mineral shipments. The dispute began in Trump’s first term with US tariffs on industrial imports and Chinese retaliation involving soybeans, pork and electric vehicles. In his second term, Trump threatened tariffs as high as 200%, prompting Beijing to restrict critical-mineral exports; US chip-export curbs also added to tensions.
Mary E. Lovely of the Peterson Institute for International Economics said a possible outcome is a Board of Trade mechanism under which each country cuts tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods. Her best-case scenario is modest trade liberalization involving non-sensitive goods and faster mineral shipments; she said the worst case is no common ground.
