Latest voter-roll figures show Democrats narrowing Republicans’ registration advantage in five competitive Senate states—Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska and New Hampshire—but the GOP remains ahead in each. Registration shifts do not always predict election results.
The trend was not universal: in Maine, the Democratic registration advantage fell to 31,732 from 43,755 in 2025; in North Carolina, a 604-voter Democratic lead in 2025 became a 7,403-voter Republican advantage by September. Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Texas do not register voters by party.
Separately, prediction markets put Democrats’ chance of taking Senate control at 61% on Kalshi and 63% on Polymarket as of Friday. A month earlier, Republicans had a 53% chance on Kalshi and the odds were tied on Polymarket. The figures reflect traders’ wagers and are not always accurate forecasts.
