Cook Political Report shifted 15 House races toward Democrats and says Republicans are on track to lose their majority. It projects Democrats could gain five to 15 seats, but says the shift does not mean a blue wave is coming in November.
The update is especially notable because the flagged races are in places Donald Trump previously carried by large margins. Cook managing editor Carrie Dann said Republicans could win a majority of the 22 toss-up races on paper, but called that outcome all but impossible in reality.
Dann said many races in the “lean” category had candidates tied at about 46%, leaving undecided voters, including in very Republican districts. She identified whether Republican advertising could move those voters as a key question; Republicans have a major fundraising advantage, while Trump’s MAGA Inc. PAC had mostly not spent its cash.
