Dollar-yen fell 1% Friday as the pair failed to regain its 200-day average, adding to signs its 17-month uptrend may have reversed. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump endorsed a stronger yen; a “death cross” could form by the end of next week.
A “death cross” forms when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day average. Dollar-yen broke below a trend line tracking its rise from April 2025 on Sept. 3, then retested it; Friday’s selloff confirmed the break. Oppenheimer analyst Ari Wald said the setup aligned with broad loss of momentum and strengthened the case for a reversal. He also said the pair was vulnerable to testing 152 support, near the 2026 lows.
Death crosses are not reliable market-timing signals, Wald wrote. After the pair’s March 25, 2025, signal, it fell another 6% before bottoming about a month later. Following a Sept. 9, 2024, signal, it fell only another 1.8% before bottoming a week later.
