VanEck digital-assets research head Matthew Sigel said Bitcoin’s pullback is better explained by the dollar than bond yields: he sees virtually no correlation with yields and a persistent negative correlation with the dollar index.
Sigel identified Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average, near $78,000, as the key level for the weekly close. He said there would be “nothing to worry about” if it held through Friday, but warned that roughly $20 billion in call-heavy options expiring this week could pressure prices lower in the short term.
Sigel attributed the summer rally to sellers running out and noted Bitcoin rose from roughly $58,000 to $86,000 despite a Fed rate hike and the Clarity Act’s failure. He said realized volatility has fallen 50% over four years and that, adjusted for volatility, this cycle’s pullback is broadly in line with expectations as institutional adoption grows.
