Record diesel prices could raise grocery bills by Thanksgiving as freight costs rise, experts say. USDA economists forecast frozen whole hens above $1.74 a pound wholesale in 2026; if that holds, a 16-pound turkey could cost nearly $28, versus $21.50 last year.
AAA put Wednesday's average diesel price at $6.52 a gallon, up from $5.60 a month earlier and $3.69 a year earlier. Dow Jones Energy analyst Denton Cinquegrana linked the latest surge to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries; he said Middle East tensions and slower shipping through the Strait of Hormuz had also contributed to elevated prices. Marex's Jack Cooney said hauling corn and soybean meal, key turkey-feed ingredients, cost 5 to 7 cents more per bushel since August—a transport-cost increase of at least 5% that could reach retailers in about 45 days.
State Street PriceStats researcher Caroline Coughlin said diesel costs had not yet substantially passed through to consumer food prices; if they do, fresh meat, dairy and produce may be affected first. Supermarket analyst Phil Lempert said most frozen turkeys shipped before diesel's sharpest increases, but fresh birds—preferred by about 10% of customers—begin shipping in early November and are likely to cost more. He said higher transport costs could also make supermarkets' turkey promotions less enticing. President Donald Trump is considering a ban on U.S. diesel exports.
