Tax writer Laura Saunders plans to owe the IRS at the next filing deadline, fearing a refund delay could be hard to resolve after the agency lost 31,000 staff in a year. Most refunds were timely, but taxpayers needing help often struggled to reach the IRS.
The Treasury inspector general attributed the January 2025–January 2026 staffing decline to budget cuts and reductions tied to Elon Musk’s DOGE initiative; the GAO found the IRS answered a smaller share of calls and wait times lengthened. More than 90 million refunds went out this filing season, averaging $3,275. Richard Weiss told The Wall Street Journal he was still awaiting a five-figure refund on a February return; a Milwaukee CPA said four of five clients with delayed e-filed refunds remained uncertain when they would arrive.
Experts say a large refund usually reflects overpayment rather than lower taxes and amounts to an interest-free loan to the government; they suggest aiming for a refund near zero. But taxpayers expecting to owe more than $1,000 typically must pay 90% of the bill before April 15 to avoid underpayment penalties. Employees can adjust W-4 withholding, while self-employed people make quarterly estimates; paying the prior year’s tax—or a little more for high earners—can qualify for a safe harbor that avoids penalties without reducing the tax bill.
