An internal Republican poll published by Quorum Report puts Texas Senate candidate James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton, 52% to 41%, among likely voters in state Senate District 9—a 28-point shift from Donald Trump’s 17-point win there in 2024.
The poll surveyed 600 likely voters from Sept. 10–15 and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Quorum Report called it an internal Republican poll but said it published the results without revealing how it obtained them or releasing the polling memo, an unusual step for the outlet.
Two other recent surveys also had Talarico ahead: Siena College/ReconMR found him up 49% to 43% (Sept. 8–11), and Emerson College put him ahead 47% to 46% (Sept. 12–14). In January, Democrat Taylor Rehmet won the district’s special election by more than 14 points, the first Democratic win there since 1991.