Polls suggest young voters may turn out in unusually high numbers in the 2026 midterms: over 95% of 18- to 29-year-olds in an Emerson poll said they were excited to vote, and 56% in a Tufts survey said they were extremely likely. Turnout is not assured.
Tufts’ CIRCLE estimates say 28% of 18- to 29-year-olds voted in 2018, a record for a midterm. CIRCLE analysis identified close Texas and Michigan Senate races as contests where young voters could matter. A Marist poll put Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton, 50%-44%, among registered Texas voters; 74% of young respondents backed Talarico. In Michigan, 82% of likely voters ages 18–29 in a New York Times/Siena poll said they were almost certain or very likely to vote, and young voters favored Democrat Abdul El-Sayed over Republican Mike Rogers.
The youth vote is not uniform. A Sept. 24 Cygna poll found likely male voters ages 18–30 favored the Democratic option over the Republican one on a generic midterm ballot, 52% to 42%. In Tufts CIRCLE’s survey, 38% of young independents said they planned to vote, compared with 68% of Democrats and 49% of Republicans. About 15% of those independents said they had moved left, while 4% said they had become more conservative.
