A simulation found that receiving first gives an NFL overtime coin-toss winner a 53.14% win rate, though the model depends on its assumptions. Colts coach Shane Steichen chose to kick against Kansas City last Sunday; the Chiefs won in overtime.
Only 20 games have gone to overtime since the NFL adopted the new postseason rules in March 2022 and extended them to the regular season in 2025. The coin-toss winner chose to kick in 14 of those games; teams that received first have a record of 11-8-1.
Cardiologist Dylan Goings’ study, published in The Journal of Sports Analytics in July, simulated 100,000 overtimes and found no tested combination of team factors made kicking preferable. He argued that the team with the second possession should pursue a win on its first drive, such as going for it on fourth-and-short or attempting a two-point conversion, rather than tying the score. Consultant Frank Frigo also slightly favored receiving first, noting that 22.1% of NFL overtimes end on the third possession and 6.4% on the fifth.
