Motley Fool contributor Daniel Sparks predicts Adobe shares could top $350 before 2030, about 45% above the roughly $241 price cited. His case assumes subscription revenue grows near 10% a year, operating margins hold and buybacks continue; slower growth is the key risk.
At fiscal third-quarter close on Aug. 28, Adobe’s annualized recurring revenue was $27.5 billion, up 11.2% year over year. Quarterly revenue reached a record $6.76 billion, up 13%, while adjusted earnings per share rose 15% to $6.13. Management raised its fiscal 2026 targets to about $26.6 billion in revenue and adjusted EPS of $24.45–$24.50, with an adjusted operating margin around 45%.
Sparks models adjusted EPS growth of 12%–14% annually, reaching about $34 by fiscal 2029. At $350, Adobe would trade at just over 10 times those earnings, so the forecast does not require a higher valuation multiple. The board authorized $25 billion in buybacks through April 30, 2030, with $24.55 billion still unspent at fiscal third-quarter end. Sparks says growth falling to low single digits could stall profit growth.
