Airbnb shares fell about 20% in a month despite a Q2 revenue beat and higher full-year guidance. On Sept. 16, Morgan Stanley began Airbnb coverage at Equal Weight with a $170 target, saying low double-digit room-night growth and margin gains through 2028 were priced in.
Revenue rose 17% year over year to $3.6 billion, above analysts’ $3.57 billion estimate; gross booking value climbed 16% to $27.2 billion. Net income was $816 million, adjusted EBITDA reached $1.3 billion at a 35% margin, and free cash flow totaled $1.3 billion for the quarter and $4.8 billion over 12 months. Full-year guidance rose to at least mid-teens revenue growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 35.5%.
Citizens raised its target to $200, keeping Outperform; Raymond James upgraded at $200, and Rosenblatt initiated Buy at $220. Nights and seats booked rose 10%; app bookings rose 23%, reaching 64% of nights; first-time bookers rose 11%, fastest in four years. Management credited an AI overhaul with cutting support costs per booking by 16%; hotels, still a single-digit share of nights, grew about three times faster than core rentals. Airbnb’s $250 million Housing Accelerator starts with a roughly 200-unit Austin development. Management said returns would be below market; the article warned of limited near-term profit and possible regulatory scrutiny.
