Motley Fool contributor Keithen Drury estimates $10,000 in SpaceX could be worth about $7,500 in 2030, assuming 40% annual revenue growth and a 30% profit margin. His model values it at $1.5 trillion, below a current market cap just under $2 trillion.
Drury uses Wall Street analysts’ $44.8 billion 2026 revenue estimate as a starting point. At 40% annual growth for four years, he projects $172 billion in 2030 revenue and $51.6 billion in profit, then applies a 30-times earnings multiple. SpaceX is not profitable now; management said during the IPO roadshow it was targeting a 45% future net-income margin, while Drury assumes 30% and says he considers the stock too expensive.
Company figures cited in the article put second-quarter 2026 revenue at $4.29 billion for connectivity, $2.56 billion for AI and $962 million for space. Connectivity is mostly Starlink; SpaceX owns xAI, developer of Grok. The article says AI revenue rose 213% during the quarter.
