Mitchell Moffit of AsapSCIENCE says the 2026–27 El Niño’s ocean-temperature anomaly is a record 3.08 degrees above average and may reach around 4 degrees. His video forecasts flooding in parts of the Americas and hotter, drier conditions in parts of Africa and Oceania.
Moffit says weaker trade winds shift warm Pacific water and affect air pressure and jet streams. He predicts more rain and storms along the Americas’ west coasts; possible drought in the Amazon, Central America and Sahel; and fewer Atlantic hurricanes but more in the Pacific. Peru has canceled its anchovy fishing season because fish seeking colder water have moved too deep to catch.
Moffit cites a 2023 estimate that an average El Niño leads to $3.4 trillion in global economic losses over five years. He says forecasts for the 2026–27 event project about 450,000 deaths from heat alone and 50 million people pushed into acute hunger. He says El Niño is not caused by climate change, though it adds to existing climate-related challenges; he also cites research suggesting global heating is intensifying El Niño cycles.
