Ohio State opens Big Ten play against Illinois with models favoring the Buckeyes: the Football Power Index gives them a 95.3% win chance, and SP+ projects a 37-16 win. Ohio State needs to improve on third downs, in the red zone and on the ground.
Other models also favor Ohio State: The Power Rank gives the Buckeyes a 96% chance to win by 26.5 points at home, while Massey predicts a 35-17 score and an 88% win probability.
Ohio State leads the series 69-30-4 and has won the last 10 meetings. Ryan Day’s only matchup with Illinois was a 34-16 Ohio State win in Champaign in 2025; Illinois last beat the Buckeyes in 2007.
