Michael Burry estimated in a Sept. 19 Substack post that Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft and Oracle have more than $3 trillion in combined AI-related obligations. He warned that long-lived data centers could be mismatched with rapidly changing chip technology.
Burry put uncommenced lease commitments at nearly $1.2 trillion and purchase commitments above $1.5 trillion; adding special-purpose vehicles, guarantees and other contingent backstops brought his estimate above $3 trillion. He argued data centers can take three to five years to build and carry 13-to-20-year leases, while chip power and cooling needs may shift within 12 to 18 months.
Burry also cited more than $400 billion in construction-in-progress assets across the five companies, which do not incur depreciation under GAAP until projects enter service. Separately, he has argued that extending Nvidia chips’ useful lives could understate industry depreciation by about $176 billion from 2026 through 2028. If those assumptions hold, he estimated Oracle and Meta earnings could be overstated by 26.9% and 20.8%, respectively, by 2028. Burry framed his post as a downside-risk warning, not an allegation of fraud.
