Social Security’s 2027 raise is forecast at 3.5%–3.6%, but Madison Partners estimates Medicare costs could absorb one-fifth to one-third of a 3.5% increase. The SSA will announce the COLA Oct. 14; at 3.5%, the average retired worker would get about $72 more monthly.
AARP projects a 3.6% COLA; the Senior Citizens League and Mary Johnson estimate 3.5%. Madison Partners says Medicare costs could absorb 20%–33% of a 3.5% raise. Its low estimate uses trustees’ projection that the standard Part B premium will rise from $202.90 to $209.50 a month; the high end assumes a $216–$219 premium, based on its reading of CMS estimates. At the high end, about $252 of an $870 annual increase would go to Medicare. CMS has finalized the Part D deductible rise from $615 to $700; that expense is felt at the pharmacy counter, not deducted from Social Security.
SSA averages the July–September 2026 CPI-W, an inflation gauge, and compares it with the same period in 2025; September is the final reading. CMS will not finalize the actual 2027 Part B premium until November, weeks after the COLA announcement. Medicare Open Enrollment runs Oct. 15–Dec. 7; Madison Partners urged beneficiaries to compare Part D plans because plan-level prices and cost sharing vary. A 2026 Nationwide Retirement Institute survey found 74% of beneficiaries had made financial changes because costs outpaced benefits; 51% cut discretionary spending and 38% reduced purchases of essentials, including groceries and medications.
