Interactive Brokers economist José Torres said a slowdown in AI investment could leave markets with a down year and the economy with several quarters of GDP contraction; he also expects equity drawdowns and lower valuations if AI growth weakens.
Torres said the impact depends on AI firms’ returns on investment. Strong returns could sustain earnings and encourage spending in other areas even as AI outlays slow; weak returns could lead companies to shut down AI activities. Successful returns might also create more high-income job opportunities benefiting lower- and middle-income groups, or spur industrial and construction firms.
Host Josh Lipton cited $800 billion in AI capital spending this year and said analysts he had interviewed were looking for about $1.1 trillion next year.
