The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve stands at 285 million barrels, its lowest level since 1983. Analyst John Divine says Washington has little room to curb oil prices; he sees a sustained VIX above $21-$23 as a stock-risk signal and natural gas as a possible hedge.
On Monday, crude fell 5.4% to $95.94 and Brent to $100.34 as Trump floated a meeting with Iran’s president at the U.N.; the S&P 500 posted its best day since early August. The VIX closed at 14.87, below Divine’s stated $21-$23 threshold.
Henry Hub natural gas stayed below $3 all summer, while U.S. inventories were 5.2% above the five-year average. LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz reached a six-month high, though HSBC said flows through the strait remained at 30% of pre-war volume. Diesel hit a record $6.51 on Sept. 21, up 82% this year; gasoline accounted for more than a third of August’s 0.4% CPI increase, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
