The Iran war's disruption to oil and gas production and transport has reduced global fuel use; a Washington Post analysis of IEA data says 2026 fossil-fuel emissions are on track to fall from 2025, despite rising coal use, while oil demand is forecast to drop 2.5%.
The IEA's projected annual oil-demand decline is equivalent to emissions from 42 million internal-combustion cars. The difference between its January outlook and its latest 2026 outlook corresponds to emissions equivalent to those avoided by 103 million cars. The projected year-over-year fall in fossil-fuel emissions would be the first since the height of the coronavirus pandemic.
Whether the decline will last is unsettled. Many forecasts expect oil and gas demand to return to prewar levels in 2027, while the IEA expects only a slight recovery to pre-conflict levels. Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov said some of the reduction may be permanent; consultancy DNV said each additional month of conflict raises that likelihood, citing rising EV sales and diesel prices that could reshape shipping.
