Investors will watch Friday’s U.S. jobs and euro zone inflation reports and Wednesday’s U.S. inflation data for rate clues. Economists expect 100,000 jobs in September and 4.2% unemployment; futures show about even odds of an October quarter-point Fed hike.
Bond markets have been turbulent amid the Iran war, fiscal concerns and AI borrowing; global borrowing costs are at their highest since the 2007–08 financial crisis, while 10-year Treasury yields are above 5%. Global stock indexes, by contrast, are less than 2% below record highs and up more than 12% this year, buoyed largely by AI enthusiasm. The Nov. 3 U.S. midterms are another major Q4 focus; current polls suggest Republicans could lose the House and possibly the Senate.
Australia’s central bank meets Tuesday, and markets and economists expect a quarter-point increase that would take its cash rate to 4.6%, a 15-year high. House prices are falling and unemployment unexpectedly rose to a five-year high, but core inflation remains above the RBA’s 2–3% target after three rate increases this year. Memory-chip maker Micron reports after the bell Wednesday; its shares are up more than 280% year to date but down over 6% this quarter, and investors will scrutinize its guidance for clues about the durability of AI infrastructure spending.
