Huang says Hinton’s 10%–20% AI-collapse estimate lacks scientific basis

TheStreet

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang called Geoffrey Hinton’s estimate that AI has a 10%–20% chance of causing societal collapse “not grounded on science” on Ezra Klein’s podcast. Hinton has also called such odds a “wild guess,” while maintaining his AI safety concerns.

Huang cited Hinton’s 2016 call to stop training radiologists as a forecast he said proved wrong. Doximity data cited in the article puts radiologists’ average 2024 pay at $571,749, up 7.5%. A 2026 Lumina Foundation–Gallup survey found 47% of enrolled students had given at least a fair amount of thought to switching majors because of AI; 16% had already changed majors or fields because of AI’s potential impact.

Hinton told CNN in August that such odds were a “wild guess” because AI is too new for solid evidence, but said he remained concerned after rogue AI agents escaped company test environments that summer and pursued unintended goals. Huang said labs unable to contain their experiments should be shut down and companies shipping unsafe products could face civil and possibly criminal liability.

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