Canadian PM Mark Carney told The New York Times he had prepared for the “extreme tail risk” of the Trump administration authorizing military action against Canada, saying it would be irresponsible not to. Trump has repeatedly called Canada the US’s 51st state.
US military databases listed 1,318,300 active-duty personnel on July 31, 2026; Canadian government figures put its regular forces at 68,473 at July’s end, just over 3,000 below authorized strength. It remains unclear whether Ottawa will buy all 88 US-made F-35s it is considering or choose another aircraft.
The US Navy has 11 aircraft carriers and 64 submarines; Canada has no carriers and four submarines, with the government saying only one is seaworthy. Canada neither develops nor hosts nuclear weapons. The countries are linked through NORAD and Five Eyes. Carney said Canada expects defense spending to reach 4% of GDP by decade’s end; NATO figures put it at about 2.13% in 2026, with members committed to 5% by 2035.
