Years of high food prices and household debt are fueling frustration with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's fourth-term bid. Polls put him neck and neck with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, while Lula points to record-low unemployment and easing inflation.
A September Quaest poll found nearly half of Brazilians said the economy had worsened over the previous year, compared with 19% who said it had improved. Food inflation has slowed sharply and prices fell between June and August, but they remain well above pre-pandemic levels; household debt service excluding mortgages reached a record 26.6% of income in June, central-bank data show.
Bolsonaro has made buying power a campaign theme, comparing supermarket prices with those under his father's presidency. Lula's campaign launched a “Market of Lies” website and filed an electoral-court complaint accusing Bolsonaro's campaign of lying about prices. Two weeks before the first round, Lula announced a 15% increase in a welfare program, due to take effect before the late-October runoff, and an executive order banning online betting from October 6. Polls suggest the welfare and betting measures have yet to meaningfully shift voter sentiment.
