Bank of America estimates U.S. food-at-home inflation could accelerate from August’s 2.2% annual rate to 7%–8% over the next six months, as higher fuel, wage and commodity costs move through the supply chain.
The bank’s indicator tracks wages, fuel and commodity costs. It said diesel price growth accelerated from 31% in July to 46% in August. Acosta tracked a typical 84-item grocery basket at about $366, nearly 27% more than its roughly $288 cost in 2020.
The USDA expects food-at-home prices to average 2.5% higher in 2026, with a forecast range of 1.7% to 3.3%. That full-year estimate is not directly comparable with Bank of America’s projection for the year-over-year inflation rate roughly six months ahead.
