Argentina’s INDEC is due Thursday to release first-half 2026 poverty data; economists expect the first rise since inflation slowed under Milei. UCA says the rate could reach 35% by year-end, from 28% in 2025, a potential setback for Milei before the 2027 vote.
UCA Social Debt Observatory director Agustín Salvia estimated the current poverty rate at 31%–32% and said 400,000 to 450,000 people had fallen into poverty in each of the past four quarters. In Villa Astolfi near Buenos Aires, residents at a barter club launched in August trade cooking oil, sugar, flour and pasta for used clothing and household goods.
A September AtlasIntel survey found nearly 70% disapproval of Milei among lower-income respondents earning up to about $650 a month, while approval fell below 30%; a year earlier, the figures were 57% and 37%. Unemployment reached 7.9% in the second quarter, up from 7.6% a year earlier, and private-sector employment had declined for 13 straight months, analyst Nicholas Watson said. The government says it will not increase public spending or renew subsidies, arguing this would jeopardize efforts to curb inflation and maintain fiscal discipline.
