Leo Sun says another U.S. recession is inevitable after 10 official recessions since 1957, but he is not worried. He points to the S&P 500’s recoveries and roughly 10% average annual total return since 1957, and sees declines as buying opportunities.
The index fell 57% from peak to trough during the 2007–09 Great Recession and 34% in two months during the early-2020 COVID crash. Sun says quarterly rebalancing keeps the S&P 500 focused on the 500 most valuable U.S. companies. He estimates that $10,000 invested in Vanguard’s S&P 500 Index Fund at the start of 2007, with dividends reinvested, would be worth about $79,300 by Sept. 23, 2026.
Sun also compares hypothetical $10,000 investments made on Jan. 1, 2007: with dividends reinvested, Apple would have grown to more than $1.33 million and Nvidia to $4.06 million by Sept. 23, 2026. He argues the S&P 500’s leading stocks should keep rising as long as the U.S. economy continues to grow.
