U.S. dependence on China for rare earths will last well into the 2030s despite growing domestic output. Output of its two most-used types has more than tripled but meets only 42% of demand. Trump and Xi may discuss extending China’s delay of rare-earth export restrictions on aال?
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence projects that the U.S. will still import nearly a quarter of its rare-earth demand within five years. China agreed last year to delay export restrictions until November 10. The White House’s separate January 2027 target to block Chinese rare-earth imports is described in the report as all but impossible.
Trump has poured billions of dollars into MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, Energy Fuels and other companies to loosen China’s grip on supply. MP Materials began delivering magnets made from its own refined rare earths to General Motors earlier this month. The U.S. processes hardly any heavy rare earths used in military applications; output is expected to rise by 2031 but remain below demand.
