SpaceX has reportedly stopped taking new Falcon 9 rideshare reservations, betting Starship can eventually fill the gap. Rocket Lab could gain launch demand if satellite operators switch providers, but Starship's commercial readiness remains unproven.
Elon Musk has said Falcon will wind down once Starship flies reliably several times a week. Starship has yet to demonstrate a tower catch and reflight of its upper stage, and customers reportedly expect Falcon rideshares could need an extension if Starship is delayed. Falcon 9 had completed 107 missions through Sept. 19, 2026. DZ Bank began coverage with a Sell rating and a $100 target, citing capital spending, a $60 billion acquisition and more shares becoming tradable as IPO lock-ups expire.
Rocket Lab's Neutron targets the medium-lift, reusable market that Falcon 9 currently dominates. The company's second-quarter backlog was $2.36 billion, up 137% year over year, with more than 90 launches under contract. It could absorb some shifted demand through Electron in the short term and Neutron after its debut, though Rocket Lab says the window for an end-of-2026 Neutron launch is narrowing.
