FINRA data cited by The Motley Fool show margin debt rose 77% from nearly $851 billion in April 2025 to a record $1.502 trillion in June 2026. The article says prior rapid surges preceded major downturns, but cautions history cannot guarantee a crash.
The article cites three earlier episodes: margin debt rose 80% from March 1999 to March 2000, followed by two years in which the S&P 500 fell 49% and the Nasdaq 78%; a 66% rise from June 2006 to July 2007 preceded the S&P 500's 57% decline during the Great Recession; and a 95% increase from the pandemic low to October 2021 was followed by the 2022 bear market, which began three months after debt peaked.
For perspective, the article cites a Bespoke Investment Group review covering 97 years: average S&P 500 bear markets lasted 286 days, compared with 1,023 days for bull markets; none of 27 bear markets lasted more than 630 days.
