China imported 1,100 tonnes of gold through August, including a record 44 tonnes in August, according to customs data—more than in all of 2025 and its highest level since 2017. Goldman Sachs’ base case forecasts $4,900 an ounce by end-2026.
Goldman’s $4,900 forecast assumes continued central-bank buying averaging 50 tonnes a month in 2026 and 40 tonnes in 2027, plus a recovery in private-investor ETF demand. The bank said a Federal Reserve rate hike could instead bring its end-2026 forecast to $4,440 an ounce, as higher rates may prompt ETF holders to sell.
Experts quoted by Moneywise said US investors should not treat China’s buying as an order to chase gold; the article describes an allocation of about 5% as a modest share of a typical portfolio. It also identifies higher US rates and bond yields, a stronger dollar, easing geopolitical tensions and renewed confidence in other assets as factors that could weigh on gold.
