University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab estimates a powerful El Niño could contribute to 451,000 extra heat-related deaths worldwide in its first nine months, compared with a typical year. The heaviest toll is expected in lower-income countries in the Global South.
Brazil and India are among the countries projected to face especially severe losses. The researchers estimate Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad could see more than 65,000 heat-related deaths combined, while the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia may approach 40,000.
El Niño involves warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures in part of the equatorial Pacific and can reshape weather patterns. The lab said droughts, wildfires and flooding are also risks. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said El Niño may continue until spring; the World Meteorological Organization said it may become the strongest on record, with peak intensity expected near the end of 2026. The report highlights heat warnings, outreach, cooling sites, hydration points, worker safeguards and stronger health systems as ways to reduce harm.
