A National Foundation for American Policy analysis estimates DHS’s proposed $103,265 fee on H-1B cap-subject petitions could raise $2.6 billion a year, about 70% below DHS’s $8.8 billion projection. It forecasts 30,270 petitions, compared with DHS’s 85,000 assumption.
NFAP based its estimate partly on a 91.2% year-over-year drop in consular initial Form I-129 H-1B petitions after a $100,000 fee took effect in September 2025. It also counted expected losses in registrations and related fee revenue under the proposed charge. DHS put the 91.2% decline in a technical appendix and did not discuss it in the proposed rule’s Federal Register explanation, the article says.
Unlike the 2025 proclamation’s $100,000 fee, which covered only new H-1B visa holders abroad, the August 25 proposal would apply to cap-subject petitions for people inside or outside the United States. Attorney Jonathan Wasden said failing to consider or address the revenue gap could lead a court to vacate the rule under the Administrative Procedure Act.
