Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko says the country's potash is already contracted, complicating Donald Trump's proposed U.S. purchase. Experts say restricted routes and shipping costs could undermine claims that Belarusian supply would be cheaper than Canada's.
Trump said Sept. 21 that the U.S. was working on a deal to buy Belarusian potash at a price substantially below what it pays Canada. The next day, he said the U.S. would continue buying from Canada. The article reports no completed agreement. StoneX analyst Josh Linville said the U.S. has enough potash for now and needs phosphate and nitrogen instead.
Linville said Belarus's usual route through Lithuania is offline, largely because of sanctions linked to the Russia-Ukraine war. Yagiz Sullu said a longer route through Russia would add rail, port, insurance and handling costs, and that the route and initial price are needed to determine whether the supply would be cheaper. Trade consultant Arif Gasilov described the proposal as leverage in U.S.-Canada trade tensions and said Belarus shipped 11.6 million tons of potash through Russian ports in 2025.
