After the prime minister’s BBC interview, Andy Burnham’s planned care-funding proposals for Labour’s next manifesto have fuelled speculation the government could scrap the state pension triple lock in the next Parliament. The policy costs £15.5bn a year.
Under the triple lock, state pensions rise each April by at least 2.5% or in line with whichever is higher: prices or earnings. The arrangement is due to expire at the end of this Parliament, in theory. Asked whether it could change in the next Parliament, Chancellor John Healey said the prime minister had said welfare costs must come down; his answer did not rule out a change.
Reverting to an earnings link could save tens of billions of pounds a year in the long term. The triple lock’s annual cost is now three times the original estimate for 2030, with volatility in prices and earnings a major factor. Former ministers say directing savings towards care services could shift the debate. Reform leaders see the policy as a potential dividing line with Labour, while pension campaigners say UK state pensions are not generous by international standards.
