Intel shares are up more than 40% in September and about 250% so far in 2026, but Motley Fool columnist Keithen Drury says the stock’s valuation—62 times estimated 2027 earnings—is hard to justify and could bring a price drop if earnings don’t catch up.
Drury says Intel had little new information in recent weeks about its plans or the progress of its foundry business, which he says needs a turnaround to support the valuation. The shares were trading at 84 times this year’s earnings estimates.
Drury compares Intel’s foundry business with Taiwan Semiconductor, whose shares averaged about 23 times earnings over the past decade, and Intel’s computing-products divisions with Nvidia, then at 28 times earnings. He says Intel would need to nearly triple earnings after 2027 to trade at Taiwan Semiconductor’s average multiple; he argues investors could face a significant price decline if earnings do not justify high valuations.
